Core Technology
R₀ Schedule Contagion Engine
Adapting epidemiological basic reproduction number ($R_0$) to quantify schedule infection risk across the critical path.
The Contagion Formula
When a vendor delivers equipment with non-compliant specs or late shipments, how many downstream milestone tasks are infected?
// Canonical Contagion Formula
R0_contagion = (downstream_tasks + 2 * critical_path_tasks) / 10.0
// Engineering Variance Magnitude
R0_engineering = min(10.0, deviation_ratio * 28.0 * parameter_criticality)
// Combined Composite Score
R0_final = (0.40 * R0_contagion) + (0.60 * R0_engineering)
R0_contagion = (downstream_tasks + 2 * critical_path_tasks) / 10.0
// Engineering Variance Magnitude
R0_engineering = min(10.0, deviation_ratio * 28.0 * parameter_criticality)
// Combined Composite Score
R0_final = (0.40 * R0_contagion) + (0.60 * R0_engineering)
Severity Thresholds
R₀ < 1.0
Contained (Low Risk)
Failure does not propagate to critical milestones.
1.0 ≤ R₀ < 2.0
Moderate Risk
Infects immediate successor tasks; buffer is consumed.
R₀ ≥ 2.0
Systemic Critical Alert
Super-spreader event; delays Energization / Commissioning.
Try the Contagion Simulator
R₀ Schedule Contagion Simulator
Downstream Tasks Blocked12 tasks
Critical Path Blockers (2x Weight)4 tasks
Submittal Deviation Gap15% miss
Contagion Score (R₀)
2.9
Project Impact
Critical Alert